Crowley Political Report

Weldon's first video for Senate race

Dave Weldon's clearly been planning his run for the Florida U.S. Senate seat for bit a now. Here's his first video:

 

Weldon enters Florida Senate race

Florida's Republican primary for U.S. Senate just got a tad more interesting. Former Orlando area Congressman Dave Weldon is entering the race.

We're sure Connie Mack and George LeMieux are thrilled.

What is the good doctor thinking?

Well here's what he says on his new campaign website:

Dear Friends,

Thank you for visiting my Dave Weldon for Senate campaign website. I hope you'll be encouraged by the statements and positions you see here for the coming battle in November. If you've been looking for a strong conservative candidate you can support, someone who can win the November election and represent Florida in the U. S. Senate, I am that man.

Chuck Todd, George LeMieux and Charlie Crist

Former interim U.S. Sen. George LeMieux's campaign sent out a video of his appearance on MSNBC's  Daily Rundown yesterday with Chuck Todd.

Did LeMieux do well?

Todd aggressively asked about LeMieux's relationship with former Gov. Charlie Crist which has been shadowing the LeMieux campaign since he first announced. 

LeMieux repeated his assertion that his relationship with Crist (which he now describes as just cordial) is not hurting his campaign. 

Todd also repeatedly questioned LeMieux about the personal nature of his campaign against Congressman Connie Mack. LeMieux has compared Mack to Charlie Sheen and insists that few people in Mack's district every see him because he really lives in California with his wife, Congresswoman Mary Bono.

"He's trying to run a campaign where people will mistake him for his father," said LeMieux referring to former U. S. Sen. Connie Mack III.

Interestingly, LeMieux repeatedly calls his Republican primary opponent, "Mack the fourth."

Was it wise for LeMieux to send this video to his supporters? Maybe not.

 

Is Allen West turning out to be weak Tea?

One could conclude that the Club for Growth is a tad disappointed in Florida Republican Congressman and anti-Communist Allen West. 

In fact, the Club describes "Tea Party star" West's record on Tea Party issues as "anemic."  

In a look at how the 87 freshmen voted on issues important to the Tea Party - West is tied for 54the place with a score of 64 percent.

Apparently for all his tough talk about standing up against the establishment that would destroy the United States of America - the Club for Growth is convinced that West is weak tea.

More from the Club's report:

After a careful review to see if their records match their rhetoric, we found that for many of the freshmen Republicans, promises of fiscal responsibility have proven to be empty. 

Our review of the voting records of freshmen Republicans on economic issues found: 

• In 2011, freshmen Republicans received an average score of 71% on the Club for Growth’s Congressional Scorecard. The average veteran received a 69%. This means the freshmen Republicans voted, on average, about the same as the Republicans who were already in Congress.
• A majority of freshmen Republicans voted against the conservative Republican Study Committee budget.
• Only 14 freshmen Republicans signed a pledge promising never to raise the debt ceiling until “Cut, Cap, and Balance” had passed.
• “Tea Party star” Rep. Allen West received an anemic 64% for voting to raise the debt ceiling and by repeatedly voting against spending cuts.

Obama's new Florida ad

In this ad, President Obama does not say whether he supports the Seminoles or the Gators. Or the Bulls. But his campaign clearly believes paying for college is an important issue to Florida parents and students.

Will it matter in November?

LeMieux takes one in the gut is his campaign doomed?

Mitt Romney stuck himself smack in the middle of Florida's U.S. senate primary today with his endorsement of Connie Mack. Is it a risk? Maybe.

But for George LeMieux, Romney's endorsement of Mack is truly bad news. Most GOP voters may not care but the fine folks who write checks are likely to care deeply.

There is no question that Mack is a flawed candidate. His campaign seems to bank more on the family name than the achievements of Mack the younger.  Still, no matter how hard LeMieux tries he struggles to get ahead of Mack.

Florida's GOP senate primary has been a mess with candidates dropping in and out - remember Mike Hariodopolos and Adam Hasner?  Most recently, Jeff Atwater flirted with getting into the race and now former Congressman Dave Weldon is taking a look.

Clearly Romney is paying Mack back for his endorsement of Romney during the Florida primary. And his nod to Mack might discourage Weldon from getting in the race. As for LeMieux, he is not doomed but his odds of winning took a hit today.

Here is what Romney said about Mack:

“Connie Mack is a friend, a strong conservative and the type of principled leader we need in Washington to restore fiscal responsibility. By electing Connie Mack, the people of Florida will be sending a clear message to Senator (Bill) Nelson and President Obama that their failed policies have not worked to change the borrow-and-spend ways of Washington.”

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Art by Patrick Crowley

Now here's a tough TV campaign ad

Foreclosures. Yup that's an issue in this ad. 

 

Obama's broken promises

If you live in Florida or one of the other key swing states, you can be forgiven for thinking it is already October. Good lord, there's a lot of political ads on television these days - and it's just May.

Now here is some disconcerting news - Comcast is exploring technology that would allow it to show an ad while you a skipping other commercials on your DVR. 

Mind boggling isn't it.

Here's the latest ad from Crossroads GPS. 

Mack calls LeMieux the L word

Florida Republican Connie Mack is copying his dad's 1988 campaign for U.S. Senate by tossing around the word "liberal."

Mack the elder ran for the U.S. Senate  in 1988 against Democrat Buddy MacKay with a campaign slogan - "Hey Buddy, you're a liberal." Mack and MacKay served in Congress together and on many issues they had much in common. In fact, few would have described MacKay as a "liberal."

Today, Mack the son unveiled a new "ready for TV" ad, (whatever that means), calling fellow Republican George LeMieux a liberal. 

The video features shots of President Obama and former Gov. Charlie Crist.

Will the tactic work as well as it did 24 years ago? You decide.

 

An animated look at Mitt Romney and the Veeps

The things you stumple upon. Crowley Political Report found this animated video by Zina Saunders featuring Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio.

Saunders describes herself on YouTube as "an artist and animator whose in-your-face political cartoons and illustrations can be seen on the pages and websites of Mother Jones, The Final Edition, The Progressive, and The Real News."

Here is her less than flattering take on what she calls, "The Vetting Game."

Is Marco Rubio really out as Veep?

He always said he did not want the job. And now, there is a hint that maybe the Mitt Romney camp is not interested in Marco Rubio.

This has caused quite the stir among Rubio supporters. It all stems from a single, damning sentence, deep inside a story by Politico: 

"Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who is not being as seriously considered as popularly believed because aides don’t see him as experienced enough or appropriately vetted."

Ouch. 

Instead, Politico reporters  Mike Allen and Jim VanderHei write that the Romney campaign is determined to play it safe by finding a candidate without potential political baggage and the ability to become president if necessary.

How will team Rubio react? How will Republicans react? Will it matter? And more importantly, is Politico right? We bet they are. Read Politico's story and judge for yourself.

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Former Florida Congressman may enter GOP primary for Senate

Politico is reporting that former Congressman Dave Weldon may enter the Florida GOP primary for U.S. Senate.

Whether or not Weldon actually enters the raise - he tells Politico that he will make a decision next week - it is another sign of the uneasiness some Republicans are feeling with the existing candidates.

“I have had a lot of people in Florida ask me to get in, including elected officials and special interest groups,” Weldon tell Politico. “They think I’d have a better shot at winning in November, beating Sen. Bill Nelson.”

Florida Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater recently toyed with the idea of enter the race which has already seen one candidate - Adam Hasner - drop out. Hasner decided his campaign was going nowhere and is now for a Palm Beach/Broward congressional seat.

Ex U.S. Senator George LeMieux, who was appointed to the job by former Gov. Charlie Crist, continues to have difficulty shedding his long relationship with Crist who is loathed by many of the Republicans who will be voting in the primary.

U.S. Rep. Connie Mack entered the race somewhat late but some thought he would quickly outpace LeMieux. That has not happened. LeMieux may be struggling but there is clearly discomfort with Mack who is the son of former Florida U.S. Sen. Connie Mack.

Mack has faced questions abouth is lifestyle, how much time he spends in Florida, and whether he is political acumen to be in the Senate.

More from Politico: "Weldon, who represented the east central coast of Florida from 1995 to 2008, was in Washington this week to make the rounds with conservative groups and put out feelers to GOP leaders. He has already retained political consultant John Brabender, the top adviser to Rick Santorum during his presidential bid."

Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson just sits back and watches the chaos in the GOP senate race.

Go here for the must-read Politico story.

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Art by Patrick Crowley

Has Obama just lost Florida over gay marriage?

Florida can be slow to change. In 1969, the Florida Legislature ratified the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. It was the 50th state to do so. The Amendment had become part of the Constitution in August 1920.

Women had been voting for nearly 50 years.

 This year is the 30th anniversary of the Florida Legislature's 1982 decision not to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment.

 Nov. 4, will be the fourth anniversary of Florida's passage of the Florida Marriage Protection Amendment - "This amendment protects marriage as the legal union of only one man and one woman as husband and wife and provides that no other legal union that is treated as marriage or the substantial equivalent thereof shall be valid or recognized."

 Nearly 62 percent of Florida voters supported the amendment.

It is against this socially conservative, political backdrop that Florida supporters of President Obama must weigh his decision to publicly support same-sex marriage.

Losing Florida will likely result in the White House being occupied by Republican Mitt Romney who opposes same-sex marriage. Where Romney may disappoint social conservatives is that no one believes that President Romney would do anything to stop gay marriages.

Obama campaign starts two new ads in Florida

Floridians can be forgiven if they believe the presidential election is next week. Already, it seems like every third commercial on television is a campaign ad. Now, we have two new ads from the Obama campaign.

The first ad - Succeed - talks about the auto industry. 

The second ad - Reverse - is the weakest of the two ads. It uses a bar graph showing high employment that gradually improves because of Obama. An awful lot of Floridians remain unemployed or under-employed and will find little comfort in this ad.

On the other hand, Florida Gov. Rick Scott might want to join Obama in proclaiming that jobs for Floridians have increased under their watch.

Betcha that's not gonna happen.

 

 

U.S. Chamber begins ads opposing Nelson, Frankel and Grayson.

Florida Democratic Senator Bill Nelson may not yet know who will be his Republican rival in the general election - either Congressman Connie Mack or former interim U.S. Sen. George LeMieux - but the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is making it clear they do not want Nelson to return Washington.

The Chamber folks feel the same way about Democrats Lois Frankel and Alan Grayson, both in congressional races,  who get their own ads. It's all part of a Chamber television ad campaign that begins today in Florida and a handful of other states.

Nelson is portrayed as the "deciding vote" for Obamacare which will "be a nightmare for Florida seniors."

Former Orlando Congressman Grayson is described as "reckless" and his "die quickly, Republicans want you to die quickly" quote is used in the ad. 

Frankel, who is taking her second shot at a congressional seat, is accused in her ad of pushing for a more extreme version of Obamacare. She supposedly wants government bureaucrats instead of your doctor taking care of your health needs.

Judge the ads for yourself.

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New LeMieux video asks where Connie Mack really lives

Questions about Republican U.S. Rep. Connie Mack's place of residence have become a staple of his opponents. His second wife, U.S. Rep. Mary Bono, lives in California. He lives in Florida. They both spend considerable time in Washington.

Mack insists he spends most of his spare time in Florida. In fact, Mack told BizPacReview.com that he was in California last year "maybe 11 days."

His rival for the GOP senate nomination, George LeMieux, has a new video that suggests that Mack is lying. LeMieux, who is in a fierce struggle to win the nomination, has so far been largely ignored by Mack.

Will Mack respond to this video? Not likely. But the issue is certain not to go away.

  

 

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A love affair with Marco Rubio

The story below originally appeared in Columbia Journalism Review:

By Brian E. Crowley

Much of the national media appears to be in love with Florida’s junior senator—Republican Marco Rubio. Back on March 23, Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post wrote about potential vice-presidential running mates for Republican nominee Mitt Romney and offered this gushing assessment:

The case for Rubio is simple and close to conclusive. He’s Hispanic, giving the GOP an opportunity to reestablish some sort of foothold in that electorally critical community. He’s from Florida, a major swing state. He’s a tea party favorite thanks to destruction of moderate Governor Charlie Crist in a Senate primary in 2010. And, he’s young; at 42 years old, Rubio is 23 years Romney’s junior. Rubio’s not perfect—we hear whispers that his time in the state legislature could be mined by a good opposition researcher—but he’s a clear number one choice in our Line.

Cillizza offered little that was new with this. He accepts the notion that some Hispanics will swoon just because Rubio is on the ticket. He is enamored by the fact that Rubio is young. (And note that Rubio is even younger than Cillizza thinks; he is 40, turning 41 on May 28.)

Cillizza also joins the chorus of those who believe Rubio could help Romney win Florida. Perhaps, but I suggest he read an impressive April analysis by Nate Silver of The New York Times, who concludes that running mates may have little impact on winning their home state. (Also, we humbly suggest that if there is information that could “be mined by a good opposition researcher” about Rubio’s state legislative record, perhaps the Post might want to put on its miner’s helmet.)

When Rubio gave a foreign policy speech at the Brookings Institution, The Washington Post’s Karen DeYoung both fawned over Rubio and backhanded the GOP: Rubio, she wrote, “took another step onto the national stage Wednesday with a foreign policy speech that positioned him squarely in the middle between a dying breed of GOP moderates and his partisan brethren who have condemned President Obama as an international weakling.”

DeYoung offered no quotes from members of the “dying breed” or the “partisan brethren.” And had she talked to at least a few members of the “partisan brethren,” DeYoung may have discovered, as Politico did here that some foreign policy conservatives were unhappy with Rubio’s speech.

Politico talks about Jeb Bush and the Veep job

Politico's Jonathan Martin has an interesting piece about all the folks in the Republican Party who dream of Jeb Bush joining the Mitt Romney ticket.

There is much gnashing of teeth. Much, oh golly the world would be a better place if Jeb would only run.  Martin does a good job of capturing the passion and clearly notes that Bush lacks similar passion for the number two job.

Martin writes:

Interviews with about a dozen Bush associates say that’s not the usual veepstakes non-denial denial — he truly doesn’t want to be on the ticket. The common euphemism among the Jeb crowd is that it’s just not his time, that the same factors that kept him out of the presidential primary make him unwilling to be the vice presidential nominee. There’s been speculation that this is shorthand for 2012 being too close to his older brother’s presidency, but those close to the younger Bush say it’s his own wife and children he has in mind when he expresses reluctance about returning to politics.

Bingo. This is not about national politics. This is about family. Columba was miserable as Florida's First Lady. She did not like living in Tallahassee. The Bush's daughter, Noelle, suffered from drug abuse while Bush was governor. On family front, it was a very difficult period.

When Crowley Political Report suggested, in this report, that if Bush wants to hang on to his political influence, he should run for U.S. Senate - several folks scoffed at the idea.

But the point remains. If Bush bypasses the national stage this time, his influence - which is negligible outside of the inner circle of GOP loyalists - will continue to diminish. He may become an elder statesman, but there shortage of those in the Republican Party. 

This is a turning point year for Bush. And frankly, we suspect he doesn't care. Every indication is that he is content doing exactly what he is doing. 

He may be one of the few former politicians who actually enjoys fading into the background. 

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Why Jeb Bush should run for the U.S. Senate

We are approaching Jeb Bush’s tenth anniversary.  When the ballots are completed this summer, Bush’s name will not be on them. The last time Bush was on the ballot was 2002, when he won his second term as governor.

Ten years.

While some folks still believe there is a Bush Florida political machine -they are mistaken.  A political machine requires candidates and campaigns to thrive. Bush's folks have long moved on to other candidates and campaigns. 

Florida's former governor certainly has not disappeared. He travels the country preaching his gospel of education reform which can be reduced to - public education does not work, let's give private enterprise (charter schools) a crack at it.

Bush also campaigns for other candidates and offers his endorsement - sometimes belatedly such as giving Mitt Romney the nod after the nomination was all but wrapped up. Candidates like adding his name to their list but the value of his endorsement is diminishing.

That's what happens when you have stayed off the ballot for 10 years.

And there was this hint - a wistful moment perhaps - when Bush said he might just take a call from Romney if he was offered the Veep job. Bush quickly pulled back - but it left some folks wondering if he is not as content traveling the country for speaking fees as he would be if his name were back on the ballot.

Bush has never been interested in running for president. He will not run for president in the future. No one who knows him well has ever believed he wants the job. 

No one has ever believed he would be interested in the U.S. Senate. He should be.

Connie Mack's monkeys flop and Jeff Atwater stirs Florida's senate race

On the phone, a Florida Republican strategist can hardly hide his dismay at the Florida Republican race for U.S. Senate.

"A lot of people are turned off by Mack. And LeMieux hasn't done anything to stand out."

Mack would be Connie. LeMieux would be George. Neither has made much of an impression on Republican voters - at least those who are paying attention.

So now, a few frustrated folks are pushing the idea that Florida CFO Jeff Atwater should get into the race. Atwater is thinking about it.

Which begs the question - would Atwater be an improvement?

In short, yes.

Atwater's statewide name recognition is probably a tad better than Mack and LeMieux. And, perhaps most importantly, Atwater should be able to raise the money he needs to win.

He is a pragmatic Republican who had a successful turn as Florida Senate president. He easily won election as CFO in 2010.  One former employee in that office suggests that Atwater has not always been enthralled with being CFO. And there are some stories that Atwater can be difficult and demanding - that he worries too much about not getting the public credit he feels he deserves.

Those are not unusual traits for politicians.

What makes Atwater attractive to some Republicans is the fact that he is not Mack or LeMieux. The Tampa Bay Times has a story about Mack suggesting deep dissatisfaction with the GOP field in general and Mack in particular.

So should Atwater ride to the rescue?